13 comments

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  Jones

  11 months ago

  there's nothing illegal about a monopoly. What's illegal is to abuse a monopoly. Nokia will never be a monopoly, even if they own 50 or 60% of the market, there will always be other mobile computing providers.
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  Samantha

  11 months ago

  I may be wrong, but isn't a Monopoly having a dominance in the market share. If Nokia were to have 60% of the market, then they would be dominant; therefore, wouldn't that make them a monopoly?
  
  Yes there may other brands, and providers, but if a company has such a large share over a market, say as Microsoft does with the computing industry; they then have this power that makes it harder for competition. That then limits choice, and then it's like a consumer dictatorship.
  
  Well, that's my understanding of it anyways.
  
  Samantha.
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  James Burland

  11 months ago

  I was thinking about these ideas the other day:
  http://tinyurl.com/5cdwxs
  
  In short, if Nokia did become the 'global leader in computing within 5 years', it would be one of the most shocking developments in the computing industry since... well, since it began!
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• 

  Alfie

  11 months ago

  @James - but that assumes you're correct in Apple gaining dominance, which I personally don't agree with. Couple that with the Symbian foundation power play, and their massive dominance in the developing world, it would be shocking if they did become the dominant computing provider, but not at all impossible.
  
  @Jones - actually that's not quite true, monopoly is illegal in most regions because laws "...regulating dominance and monopoly prevents firms from using their market power to damage the interests of consumers". That is potentially applicable here. Monopolies powers are addressedusing competition and antitrust laws.
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  James Burland

  11 months ago

  I'm not yet convinced that there is an awful lot of 'power' in the Symbian foundation power play.
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  Mike42

  11 months ago

  "As the mobile moves to become the dominant digital/web access device globally "
  
  <rant>
  
  There are soooooooooo many reasons why this statement is utter, patent bollocks.
  
  The mobile will NEVER be the 'dominant' web access device. Numbers don't mean dominance, otherwise ants would rule the world. Web content/experiences will continue to evolve, pushing the boundaries of the devices constantly. Mobile will ALWAYS lag desktops, because of the difficulties of power storage, management, display size, speed of connection, latency, etc etc. You canna'e change the laws of pyhsics cap'n.
  
  PC's are getting much cheaper/faster/bigger screens, at a rate much faster than mass-market mobiles are getting longer battery life/faster backhaul. Evidence: i3G. Yes, you can get on the web better than before. No, you can't do so for long.
  
  Yes, the great African fisherman can check his catch prices using his mobile. Great for him, but please don't translate that into the rest of us ditching our PC's for mobiles.
  
  Russell B said on his site "* If you’re not a regular reader, please don’t bother to point out that the PC is irreplaceable for tasks like writing a document, preparing a presentation or editing video. If you dock your mobile into a monitor and keyboard combo (using today’s technology), you don’t need a PC."
  
  Yup. Show me a mass-market solution for this. Can you spell G-E-E-K? This analogy is akin to Apple putting the CPU from a MacBook Pro into a mobile, then saying that your mobile is all you need...er, but all you need to do is dock it with the MBP body to use the keyboard/trackpad/display/battery. That is No Longer A Mobile - it's a PC man!
  
  If you are going to claim the mobile as 'dominant' over the PC, then KILL YOUR PC Mr Buckley. Go completely mobile. No keyboard except a mobile one. No display that needs mains power (I can lend you some cool VGA glasses if you like). No external storage except memory cards accessible via the handset.
  
  but don't shift one tiny part of the overall PC experience - the processor - onto a mobile and then claim PC's are reduntant, that mobiles are 'dominant'
  
  </rant>
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  James Burland

  11 months ago

  Nice rant!! >_>
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  Dean Bubley

  11 months ago

  In a word "no".
  
  If you're just counting computing devices connected to networks, I'd expect RFID tags or sensors to outnumber Nokia devices. But that doesn't mean that they're the "global computing monopoly" either.
  
  First things first, there are no mobile servers so that part of global computing is totally outside Nokia's scope (yes, you can you run a small web server on a device, but not a carrier / corporate grade transaction-processing platform).
  
  Secondly, the population of PCs (around 1.3bn I think) will probably rise to c2 billion as they're getting cheaper, especially in markets like India & China. But they tend to have >1 user each (in homes, schools, workplaces), so there should be almost as many PC users as mobile handset users (maybe 70-80% I'd guess)
  
  Thirdly, mobile devices are totally unsuited for mainstream enterprise computing. You won't see too many CFOs scrutinising their company accounts on a phone. Or running SAP, or a call centre, or monitoring oil pipeline flows or the other million business applications.
  
  Fourthly, emerging-world governments want populations to be PC-literate so that they have a chance to develop local software industries. Do any developers actually write code on phones? (meaningfully, not just a few to prove that it's theoretically possible).
  
  Lastly, this myth that mobile devices "become the dominant digital/web access device globally " is just that, a myth. Sure, there will be a few stats on "# of people who have ever used a browser, on anything, ever". But in terms of traffic, value, viewed pixels, time spent online, business conducted or other useful metrics, this is a spurious but self-sustaining assertion. I've done the numbers:
  http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2008/01/...
  
  It's still a very small % of users (especially in prepay-centric emerging markets) who use their phones for much beyond voice & SMS. Some of the "mobile Internet" stats are misleading and include closed WAP portals, general GPRS use, SMS-based info services and the like. They're no more "Internet" applications than a bank ATM machine. Interactive comms services, sure. The Internet? No.
  
  Dean
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• 

  Ewan

  11 months ago

  You can always rely on Dean for excellent analysis and perspective
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  South77

  11 months ago

  depends how you at it. I interact with the web/internet almost as frequently on my mopbile than on my PC.. and i sit at a desk 70% of my working time.
  
  so yes, heavy lifting on the laptop, but constant checking of email, sport scores, feeds, etc, on my mobile
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  keith_erskine

  11 months ago

  While they may be dominant on client side applications, there's still a lot of room for innovation on the server/service side. Anyone trying to do what Ovi and Mosh are accomplishing (or will accomplish) is setting themselves up for failure.
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  acurrie

  11 months ago

  If Nokia does get a monopoly at least this Mac user will have bet on the right team for a change ;-)
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  RussellBuckley

  11 months ago

  @Mike42, yes I can spell geek, same as I can spell troll, thanks. Sure, feel free to disagree and debate, but let's not get personal, huh?
  
  Dean and I disagree fundamentally on this, but neither of us needs to resort to playschool insults.
  
  Toodle pip.
  
  Russell
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